Matthew's article for VoteWatch - click here
Increased majority by 50%. Turning a marginal seat into one of the safest. Miles ahead of your opponent. Whilst in many seats last Thursday this was what Labour experienced, in Harrow East, the Conservatives bucked the trend - and not for the first time! In a bruising election for the Conservative party, there were green shoots of hope.
I should know, I was the Campaign Manager, and the lessons from this could have huge benefits for the Conservative party as they look to rebuild again.
Yes, you are reading this right: the Conservatives not only held on to Harrow East with Bob Blackman, we increased the majority from 8,170 to nearly 12,000. Harrow East was a bellwether marginal, winning by only 1,757 votes in 2017. Now, it is one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and the only seat where the Conservative candidate received over 50% of the vote share.
The inevitable question and what I have been asked time and time again since, is how? How did we do this? How did we retain our vote share? How did the red landslide and Reform wave not include us?
When the 10pm Exit Poll came out, it put Harrow East turning red at a 99% probability. This followed two MRP polls during the campaign showing us losing by 5% and 3% to Labour. Instead, we won by 15%.
So what was the secret? Having taken some time to think this through, I believe it comes down to the candidate, the campaign and the connection between Bob and his constituents.
First: candidate. Frankly, some MPs spend too long in Westminster and too little time in their constituency. Not here. Labour selected a little known, two-term backbench local councillor who never represented Harrow East. In contrast, whilst I may be biased, I can honestly say that Bob Blackman is one of the hardest working MPs, if not the hardest working. Having worked in his Parliamentary Office before, I have seen him deal with every piece of casework (80,000 cases and counting), ensuring every email and enquiry gets a response and become a recognisable face on the doorstep. His diary is similarly full of meetings, visits to schools and events, businesses and accepting every and any invitation where time allows (and even where it doesn't!)
Look at his record in Parliament, Bob has one of the highest attendance records. One of the highest spoken contribution records. One of the highest numbers of debates participated in. Is Chairman or Member of an ever increasing range of Committees, All Party Parliamentary Groups and Boards. Then every weekend, Bob goes door knocking. Meeting and listening to residents about their concerns before attending even more events in the constituency. There are 24 hours in a day and I can bet that Bob uses almost all of them, 7 days a week, putting his residents first. Time and time again I have heard Bob say how it’s constituents first, country second, party third. All in all, if you ever wanted to avoid coming up against a particular candidate: Bob Blackman would be the one.
So a first-class candidate, but what else? Well second I think the campaign we ran was unstoppable. This is where I try not to self-congratulate myself too much, but simply echo the kind words of colleagues and those who helped me. “The best campaign ever”, “Left no stone unturned”, “Executed with military precision”. Whilst some may think this is purely kindness in the ecstasy of winning, there is reason behind this. We framed this election around Bob, asking residents to #BackBob. It was about what Bob has delivered as their MP in short, memorable bites. We sought to create a brand. Everything was about Bob. Every leaflet, social media graphic, video and interview used the same template, same colour schemes, same logo.
And we were ready to go straight away. Not only the months and years of preparation before the General Election, but the fact that the minute rumors started spreading on the day Rishi Sunak eventually called the election, we were ready. I, cancelling an anniversary dinner, returned to the office late at night to start printing 35,000 letters, from Bob, to every household in Harrow East. I was in the office every day, up to 19 hours a day, 7 days a week, for the whole 7 weeks. We had a relentless pace: every week, a new leaflet. Every day, 3 canvassing sessions in 3 different wards across Harrow East. Our social media had hundreds of posts in just a few weeks, revisiting success and things delivered in the past coupled with promises for the future. I made it clear to our team, volunteers and councillors that I wanted us to out deliver, out canvass and out campaign our opponents, and despite everything they threw at it, we did. If every seat took one thing away, it would be to do more.
Then finally, I think a huge reason is the connection Bob had built between his constituents and himself. Just look at the number of votes Bob has received since 2010: 21k, 24k, 25k, 27k, 25k. Bob has built a base of supporters that consistently back him and you can see why. Every weekend for the entire 5 years, he had been out door knocking and speaking to voters. When our opponents threw the line out on Facebook that “You only ever see Bob at election time”, ordinary Harrow East residents jumped in the comments calling it out as untrue. Everyone can say “I have a connection to here” and name one or two flimsy reasons (the first usually being born here), not Bob. His connection is a relentless routine of weekly street surgeries, knocking on doors and being a prominent figure in the community.
This last one is a tough lesson for many colleagues in the Conservative party. Frankly, you cannot expect to win if you don’t put in the work. There is no safe seat anymore. Every candidate has to work and get themselves out there. Knock on doors. Be a constituency MP. Put the people before politics. Bob has earned a reputation as someone who works hard, has Harrow East in his DNA and is here to help. That, combined with the years of data compiled from weekly door knocking means I was in prime position to run a targeted, meaningful campaign reaching individual residents with messages that mattered to them, about what Bob has done and why they needed to #BackBob.
For now, these are the first steps the Conservatives need to take - and it’s not easy listening. Be a 24/7 hard-working candidate, run a non-stop, well framed campaign, and build a deep connection with voters all the time, not just election time. There may be others, point at specific leaflets or graphics, fortunate swings with independents or Reform taking away votes and the loyalty of supporters to specific parties. But for now, let’s focus on nurturing those three green shoots of candidate, campaign and connection and see what they sprout.
